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Syria’s interim government ‘to last at least 4 years’ – al-Sharaa

The coffers are bare and the challenges are piling up

A man holds Syrian opposition flags as he celebrates after Syria's army command notified officers on Sunday that President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule has ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters, following a rapid rebel offensive that took the world by surprise, in Aleppo, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Alameen Templeton
Ahmad al-Sharaa, the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader and de facto rule of Syria believes it’s going to take at least four years before Syria sees elections and a permanent government in place.
That’s a little longer than the three months Sharaa originally gave the interim government when he announced victory in Damascus’s historic Great Masjid when he even suggested HTS could disband in the process.
Sharaa told the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel: “The process of writing the constitution may take about three years, and we look forward to a constitution that lasts for the longest possible period, and this is a difficult and lengthy task.”
First shoots showing
“Organizing elections may take four years; any valid elections will require a comprehensive population census.”
Sharaa has appointed several HTS members as ministers in the caretaker government, including the key ministers of defense, justice, and intelligence.
Many held posts in the administration Sharaa established to rule Idlib in northwest Syria that HTS conquered with CIA assistance in 2015, The Oracle reports.
Sharaa stated the appointments were part of a necessary stage that is “preparatory to a longer interim government.”
The nation’s coffers are bare, the national currency is in the wastebasket and officials are still trying to track down foreign currency and bond holdings that were traded in utmost secrecy during the Bashar Al-Assad government that had to evade sanctions at every turn.
HTS is still waiting to hear from several governments and authorities about the removal of sanctions and HTS’s presence on several “terrorist” lists.
Extending the interim government’s reign to four years will give HTS a chance to get a firm grip on the country and extend its rule even beyond.
Rebuilding Syria is a colossal task as about 13 million refugees who fled the civil war want to come home. Host countries are just as impatient to see the backs of the refugee tide that has swamped their economies and caused a massive right-wing backlash across Europe.
Oil sanctions remain
Cities have been gutted, swathes of countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by US sanctions.
The Minister of Oil in the interim government, Ghiath Diab, called on Sunday to remove sanctions now the Assad regime had fallen.
Diab said the oil sector faced several challenges which have hindered securing oil derivatives, adding that many oil wells are still outside the Syrian state’s control. Forces like the Syrian Democratic Front have held oil wells to finance their operations and this was one of the biggest obstacles, Diab said.
In 2010, oil represented a fifth of Syria’s GDP, half of its exports, and more than half of the state’s revenues, as the state produced 390,000 barrels of oil per day, before declining in 2023 to 40,000 barrels per day, Middle East Monitor reports.
Syrian oil is produced from two main regions; the northeast, especially in Hasakah, and the east, extending along the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border near Deir Ez-Zor, with small fields south of Raqqa, while gas resources are concentrated in the areas extending to Palmyra in the centre of the country.
Reestablishing control will also require the cooperation of Turkey and the US, the main backers of rebel groups in the north, which have enjoyed a free ride at Syria’s expense.
Ongoing battles between Turkish and SDF forces in the north will also be key in re-establishing Damascus’s control of its oil fields.
Reintegration of rival groups
Meanwhile, SDF commander Mazioum Abdi says they have been closely coordinating with HTS. He says they’re ready to integrate into a new Syrian army “once a suitable formula has been negotiated”.
He wants those talks to take place urgently.
“Future Syria must have a single national army that defends the country and Syrian citizens. This is indisputable. The weapons of the Syrian Democratic Forces will be the weapons of this national army, integrated into it with all its experience and strength. For this to happen, direct discussions are needed to reach a suitable formula for implementing this matter,” Abdi told the Saudi daily Asharq al-Awsat.
The Kurdish military commander also revealed that field coordination between the SDF and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began on “the second day” of the offensive that outsted al-Assad.
“We haven’t yet reached direct negotiations with HTS, but we believe Syria should be a decentralized, pluralistic, democratic state where the country’s diverse identity and the rights of all Syrian components, including the Kurdish people, are constitutionally protected,” Abdi said.
Mopping up the remnants
Abdi also spoke about the ongoing clashes between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) near Tishreen Dam, which have killed at least 136 people over the past two weeks.
The SNA, which is made up of former Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, has been receiving air support from Ankara as it seeks to take control of the SDF-controlled region east of Aleppo, including the Kurdish-majority city of Kobani (Ain al-Arab) near the Turkish border.
“The threat of an attack on Kobani by Turkish-backed factions is still very high, and there is a real danger. We are working with our partners in the US-led international coalition to de-escalate there, so we proposed a demilitarized zone to dispel Turkey’s alleged concerns, but the latter has not yet responded to this mediation, and Turkish military build-ups are still ongoing,” Abdi said.
Meanwhile, US sanctions continue to bite, but that isn’t stopping HTS from building ties with Russia, with whom it is negotiating extending the treaty that allows Russia to keep bases in Syria. Sharaa has said he does not wish for Russia’s presence in Syria to end “in a manner that is inconsistent” with their long-standing ties, Al-Arabiya reports.
Diab said: “There is no point in maintaining the sanctions imposed on Syria after getting rid of the former regime and its allies. The regime relied on its allies to supply it with oil, and was not affected by these sanctions as the new Syria is affected today,” he added.
Meanwhile, Justice Minister, Shadi Al-Waisi, said the state would prosecute those responsible for crimes inside Syria and would pursue those who fled abroad.

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