Syria may divide into four as foreign powers sharpen their carving knives

Alameen Templeton

Chopping up Syria into smaller bit has always been on the neocon global playbook’s agenda, but it is now looming imminently as corporate jihad takes a turn at the helm of the government centre in Damascus, where ISIS/Nusra/Al-Qaeda is firmly in control and holding discussions with top US diplomats on a future course to take.
Asaad Hassan al-Shibani – formerly known as Zaid al-Attara, a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria, is now the foreign minister to Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani.
What’s in a name?
They led a closed corporation called Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS), formerly branded as the Nusra Front, which in turn was a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda, which in turn sometimes fell under the holding company, ISIS, depending on conditions, to a stunning victory on December 8. Syria’s national flag now has three stars, instead of the two stars of Bashar al-Assad’s government, and also coincidentally is now exactly the same as the old flag of colonial Syria that was formed by the victorious powers after World War I.
The old flag is a good indicator of the present “victorious powers'” intentions and what enthused their discussions during the latest meeting between al-Sharaa nee al-Julani at the weekend.
Agence France Presse reports US assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs Barbara Leaf led the delegation along with Daniel Rubenstein, who is leading Washington’s efforts in Syria. They’re the first US diplomats to travel to Damascus since the fall of al-Assad earlier this month.
Turkiye, which backed the HTS victory, must have been watching the meeting with close interest as it holds onto territory it seized from Kurds in the north while eyeing Israel’s ambitions in the south as the Nazi state furtively expands its own foothold around Mount Hermon.
“The meeting took place and was positive, and positive results will emerge from it,” an official from Syria’s new government told AFP.
Wanted; not wanted?
Leaf reportedly informed Sharaa that Washington would remove a $10 million bounty from his head under terrorism charges. Furthermore, officials said Sharaa “assured” them that Iran “will have no role in Syria’s political future.”
The US embassy in Damascus scheduled a press conference after the meeting, but canceled it later for “security reasons.”
Earlier on Friday, the state department said officials from outgoing US president Joe Biden’s administration would discuss with HTS leadership their “vision” for the future of Syria and their support for a transitional process based on inclusivity and respect for minority rights.
It is unknown if incoming president Donald Trump shares their “vision” which has seen them increase US troop numbers in Syria from around 900 to over 2 000. Trump had famously withdrawn US troops from the country in 2019, sparking a neocon backlash that saw him relenting and allowing 900 to remain in support of their Kurdish allies.
Shibani’s presence is important as he will be the go-to person negotiating with HTS’s allies who are still hanging in the background. He was appointed by the “General Command of the Armed Opposition Factions in Syria”, according to the official SANA website.
Shifting the veil
In addition to employing several aliases, Shibani appears to be a shape-shifting expert in incorporating and reimagining the corporate veils that obscure the real identities of HTS’s masters and bosses. Shibani is a 37-year-old graduate of Damascus University, and led the political department of the National Salvation Government, which ruled Syria’s Idlib province from 2015.
Shibani a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria and, again, a founding member with Sharaa of the Nusra Front, also oversaw the rebranding transformation of the Nusra Front into HTS.
On 10 December, Mohammed al-Bashir, another member of Sharaa’s National Salvation government in Idlib, was named prime minister.
Sharaa began his Al-Qaeda career in Iraq in 2003 and was personally picked by ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to create Al-Qaeda in Syria in 2011.
Despite designating Sharaa as a terrorist in 2013, the US continued providing him weapons and money throughout the war, clearly identifying him as an agent for effecting US foreign policy.
But where to, now?
Syria teeters on a brink that could lead to unity or fragmentation and its course may not be one of choice, but of an unavoidable unravelling of the ties that hold it together as the disparate forces of foreign interests start tugging their separate ways.
Türkiye says it wants an inclusive society where minority rights are respected. But it may we willing to give all that up for exclusive control of its northern “buffer zone”.
Israel will be keen to approve Turkish exclusive control of the north because that will bolster its claim to its buffer zone in the southern Golan.
Since 2011, Syria has been a stage for competing foreign powers. Russia and Iran supported Assad, while the US and its allies, including France, the UK, and Italy, aligned with opposition groups. Turkiye, and to a lesser extent Qatar, also pursued their ambitions in the fertile crescent of the Levant.
Russia, Iran, Turkiye, and the US maintained a significant military presence in Syria, collectively controlling 801 bases and outposts, according to the Jusoor Center for Studies.
“Ultimately, they all contribute to Syria’s fragmented sovereignty and the competing agendas that dominate its future,” The Oracle observes.
New kids on the block
But now Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also taking steps to protect their interests. They fear the return of “political Islam” and the Muslim Brotherhood, heavily backed by Türkiye and Qatar, and want to bolster their investment in opposition groups to shape their vision of a new Syria.
Turkiye has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of Assad’s fall. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was long a foe of Assad.
Erdogan wants the Kurdistan Workers’ Party completely neutralised in the border areas where they have long been a thorn in Ankara’s side. Now, he has an unprecedented opportunity to assert Türkiye’s dominance and eliminate the PKK … if Washington doesn’t perform a hostile takeover of the HTS brand.
Washington is already trying to put the brakes on Ankara’s operation in the north against PKK installations in areas like Ain al-Arab and Ain Issa, showcasing Ankara’s readiness to capitalize on its momentary, strategic advantage.
The Kurds, that in the past produced leaders like Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub, the liberator of Al-Quds, seem doomed to play the ultimate proxy role in Syria, although the US might want to resurrect their ambitions at a later stage.
Like ISIS, which was blanketed by US airstrikes hours after HTS took over Damascus, the Kurds “wild card” potential may still come back to haunt Ankara.
A home for every brand
Analysts are speculating about splitting Syria into four possible entities – a Sunni-majority region, a Kurdish zone, an Alawite stronghold on the coast and a Druze enclave, probably controlled by Israel, in the south.
HTS’s ability to hold the centre will be a critical decider, although Sharaa has already mentioned the possibility of putting the brand into liquidation and possibly incorporating other factions under a new corporation and a new brand.
The Cradle speculates opposition forces returning to their original territories may reorganise and seek prominent roles in shaping the country.
The return recalls the emergence of “Rojava” in northeastern Syria, where the Kurds, in March 2016, declared a federal system from the province of Hasakah. While the Syrian government and most opposition groups rejected the declaration, the Kurds managed to maintain control over nearly a third of Syria in the intervening years.
“Alongside this, discussions about an Alawite stronghold along the coastal Sahel and a Druze entity centered in Suwayda have also regained momentum. In southern Syria, some local armed groups from Suwayda and Daraa, which border Jordan, have actively participated in joint operations with opposition factions.
“It must be noted that the exit of opposition militants from northern Syria and their entrance into all Syrian territories means that the groups once under HTS rule in Idlib have today returned to their basic geography and demographics. This raises the possibility that these groups will reconstitute themselves in their areas and demand a share within the new administration of the country,” The Cradle observes.
Stacking the deck
Sharaa appears to be racing against time to establish a new administration before internal divisions deepen or become unsurmountable. He’s trying to preserve core state institutions while accommodating foreign fighters as new citizens of Syria while issuing overtures to Arab and western states.
So he’s keeping a strong focus on economic recovery, avoiding incendiary Islamic rhetoric, downplaying Israel’s massive territorial grab in southern Syria, and distancing Damascus from Iran and its allies, all while encouraging the west to lift crippling sanctions.
In the mean time, a new jihadi corporation appears to have been created out of thin air, its usual origin. The “Revolutionary Commando Army”, a mercenary outfit of British and US-trained fighters out of the Al-Tanf military base in the eastern desert, has told Britain’s Telegraph the US knew in advance about HTS’s planned attack.
The Telegraph writes that “In the first indication that Washington had prior knowledge of the offensive, the RCA revealed it had been told to scale up its forces and ‘be ready’ for an attack that could lead to the end of the Assad regime.”
“They did not tell us how it would happen,” its source, who named himself as “Captain Bashar al-Mashadani”, although we know that might not be his real name, said.
The US still pays the militants a salary under the pretext they are fighting ISIS in Syria.
RCA fighters occupying a base in Palmyra said they had been told to prepare for the Syrian government to be toppled in early November, nearly three weeks before the offensive began.