Alameen Templeton
Has Hayat Tahrir al-Shams’s (HTS) “interregnum of convenience” as an American ally already ended?
Western media Sunday night, just hours after HTS’s stunning moment of triumph, were reminding readers anew of their Al-Qaeda and ISIS roots – roots that lay undisturbed through about four years while the jihadi corporation tried an extended makeover in the northern part of Syria.
‘They’re still the same’
How deep that makeover reached into mujaheddin ranks, or how long it will last, is clearly a concern uppermost in the minds of the hegemonic mainstream straddling America and Europe.
“They may have evolved, but their essential ideology is still the same,” a Middle Eastern official told the Washington Post as reports of fresh HTS conquests streamed in late last week.
The Post was leading the charge Sunday night.
“The rebel victory ended the reign of a Syrian leader who infamously used poison gas and barrel bombs to kill thousands of his own citizens, while also dealing a crushing blow to the territorial ambitions of Iran and Russia.
“But the militia group that now rules Damascus also has a troubled past, with historic ties to both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. From Jerusalem and Amman to Washington and Paris, governments are watching with wariness as Syria comes under sway of a faction that the United States has officially labeled a foreign terrorist organization,” the Post observed.
An inevitable destiny
It may be HTS’s interlude as an American darling ended the moment Bashar al-Assad and his family fled the country, his army in tatters and his allies cutting him out of a coup-de-grace detente under the Astana umbrella Saturday.
Such is the inevitable destiny of all proxies, as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Ghaddafi can attest. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani may be wondering if he can escape the tug of destiny.
Mahmoud Abbas might tell him escape is impossible, but never underestimate the value of delay.
The West has Jolani under a microscope.
“By 2015, the group formerly known as al-Nusra Front had changed its name and disavowed any ties with the Islamic State, its parent organization. In 2016, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, had also publicly broken with al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremist groups,” The Post reports.
Moderate, tolerant image
“Jolani has sought since then to cultivate a more moderate, tolerant image and to root out — sometimes brutally — Islamic State supporters in his enclave as well as extremists within his organization, analysts say.”
Presumable, “brutally” cracking the whip is only acceptable against Muslims, then – it doesn’t lessen his “moderate, tolerant” image in The Post’s eyes.
Just how hard he’s willing or able to “crack the whip” on Washington’s behalf may determine the longevity or shortness of his reign.
Others are also focussed on that same pressure point the US is flexing, but from the other side.
Genuine majahiddeen have also been swept up into the flames of jihad that America is currently trying to straddle in all its reinvented, corporate forms. Now, in their eyes, is time for Jolani to deliver, if he can.
Failure on his part, or simple disagreement with his anonymous partners, could result in infighting, more violence and even his downfall.
Jolani has been at pains to wave the white flag at Israel throughout his blitzkrieg, saying HTS looks forward to future cooperation with the Nazi state. Al-Qaeda and ISIS have never threatened, let alone attacked, Israel.
Mr Nice Guy
The Post notes Jolani has gone out of his way to present his reformer’s credentials to Western audiences, enjoying the rare privilege (for a jihadi) of prime-time interviews with CNN and the New York Times. Clearly, he’s been given “the treatment”.
“No one has the right to erase another group,” Jolani said of Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities in a CNN interview Friday. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.”
The New York Times says Jolani has even suggested that he might disband HTS in order to build a new government that represented all parts of Syrian society.
“We are talking about building Syria,” Jolani said. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is merely one part of this dialogue, and it may dissolve at any time. It is not an end in itself but a means to perform a task: confronting this regime.”
End game
Russia still has significant hardware in the country, with multiple airbases dotted around former government districts. Exactly how it will safely extricate top secret air warfare and surveillance equipment out of the mess could be a major factor affecting facts on the ground in the days ahead.
Hezbollah said yesterday it had pulled all its forces out of Syria, but clearly a full withdrawal of all personnel and equipment could not have happened overnight.
“Experts” were telling the Washington Post last night, while Arabia 2024 is completely different from 2016 when Donald Trump took office, the beliefs of HTS, Al-Qaeda and ISIS were still the same.
Others who have spent years trying to “make over” his credentials insist he’s a changed man.
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