Israel risks a toe into Lebanon amid claims of start of ‘invasion’ (UPDATED)

Muhammad Amin

Israel claims it has launched a “limited” incursion into Lebanon as its citizens egg on their troops in triumphal glee following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayed Nasrallah.

US president Joe Biden is flapping his hands, unseen on the sidelines, while insisting a full invasion “must not happen” as US arms keep pouring into Israel that is making full use of its advanced US weaponry to press what it sees as its advantage.

Politicians, media “personalities” and ordinary Israelis on social media are calling in one voice for the IDF to take advantage of Hezbollah’s perceived disarray following Nasrallah’s Friday assassination.

Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, says the group is fully prepared for a ground invasion.

‘Mobilising every ounce of strength’

“Everything we’ve endured—from the challenges of our past, including the pager situation, to the powerful testimonies of our leaders, particularly our great leader—would have shaken the very foundations of [huge] armies. Yet, we have not wavered; we have moved forward with unwavering sacrifice,” Qassem said in a recorded message Monday night.

“We stand united in our struggle, bound by a single mission, and victory will ultimately be ours. What is required now is patience, as we have mobilized every ounce of our strength and preparedness for the challenges that lay ahead,” he added.

Hezbollah said Tuesday it was targeting the Glilot intelligence base and Mossad’s headquarters in Tel Aviv with Fadi-1 rockets, which are unguided, but are faster, heavier and carry a bigger, explosive payload.

According to the Iranian news agency Mehr, quoting Hezbollah, the Fadi-1 version is six meters (20 feet) long, with a calibre of 220 mm and a payload of 83 kilograms (183 pounds).

The Fadi-2 that Hezbollah says it fired on Sunday has the same size, but has a 302 mm calibre, with a 170-kilogram payload and a range of 100 kilometres.

Friday’s assassination would not have been possible without 2 000 pound bombs and F-35 aircraft – all proudly made in the USA.

Hezbollah Tuesday denied a ground invasion was happening. Israel has said “localised, targeted” raids have taken place, so we may be looking at classic “harrasment and intimidation” raids aimed at seeking out and identifying Hezbollah positions in preparation for a full invasion.

Other voices are warning that opening the Lebanon front to incursion is not really a viable option for Israel militarily. A territorial attack on any World War I borders would sink all hopes of any return to “normalization” with its increasingly nervous Gulf “allies”, the thinking goes.

Testing the ‘Arab talk shop’

By announcing a limited invasion, Israel could also be testing the waters for wider reaction before venturing more than a toe into Lebanon.

Deutsche Welle is asking Monday “will Arab leaders ever do more than just talk about what Israel is doing?

“For example, in the early 1970s, oil-producing Arab states imposed an oil embargo on the United States and others to punish them for their support of Israel. In 1973, Syria and Egypt launched attacks on Israel in an attempt to recapture territory Israel had occupied after Israeli-Arab fighting in 1967.

“Such steps would be extremely unlikely now, experts say.

“‘The [Arab leaders] have no leverage really. They’ve reached the limits of what they can do,’ says Adel Abdel Ghafar, director of the foreign policy and security program at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, based in Qatar. ‘They’ve tried to work at the multilateral level through the UN and other institutions. They’ve also tried through the Arab League, through various condemnations and strongly worded statements and so on. But really, none of this is going to change Israel’s calculus.'”

A feint attack?

So, could the Lebanon frenzy be a feint attack to distract from a drive to expel Palestinians from the West Bank where Israel sent 3 000 more troops on Monday?

Al-Mayadeen reports Tuesday the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in the West Bank is confronting occupation forces in intense gun battles amid an invasion of the Tulkarm refugee camp, the Old City and the al-Ain camp in Nablus.

A bulldozer was destroyed and several Israeli troops injured with hidden explosive devices as gunfire erupted throughout the region.

One may ask if Gaza is now the “old normal”; Israeli massacres continue in the enclave, with 13 Palestinians – mostly women and children – martyred and others injured overnight as warplanes attacked homes in the Al-Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.

Middle East Monitor reports six Palestinians were martyred and several injured in an airstrike on Al-Shuja’iyya Boys School, which houses refugees in the Al-Tuffah neighbourhood east of Gaza City.

The Gaza death toll is now 41 615, mostly women and children, with 96 359 injured since the start of the genocide on October 7. Thousands of Palestinians remain trapped under rubble, as occupation forces prevent emergency and civil defence teams from reaching them amidst a starvation blockade.